New geopolitical tensions are already rippling through global markets, and the Caribbean is watching closely. Speaking yesterday at the Caribbean Development Bank’s (CDB) annual news conference in Barbados, Acting Deputy Director of Economics Jason Cotton warned the emerging conflict involving the United States and Iran presents a live external threat to the region’s fragile growth outlook for 2026.
The CDB’s baseline projection points to economic expansion of 1.1 per cent next year when Guyana is excluded. With Guyana included, regional growth rises sharply, driven by that country’s oil-fuelled expansion.
Cotton explained that the forecasts were produced against a backdrop of “considerable uncertainty” and clear downside risks. The latest flare-up of tensions has already triggered an upswing in commodity prices, reversing the softer trend seen in recent months.
